Brian Jeffrey
Is it imperative for Vietnam to get ready for Trump’s potential comeback?
During Trump’s initial term, anti-dumping remedies were commonly employed. Back in 2018, the US Department of Commerce initiated 122 investigations that suggested levying anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on numerous imported products. A study revealed that these actions impacted 31 countries and $12 billion worth of goods entering the US.
Past US administrations, whether Democratic or Republican, have implemented comparable trade restrictive measures.
In 1990, the Clinton administration conducted an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act to impose tariffs on imports from Japan in a bid to address the trade disparity with Japan and combat intellectual property violations.
In 2002, the Bush administration utilized Section 201 to impose tariffs on steel imports to safeguard the domestic steel sector.
In 2009, the Obama administration enforced tariffs on Chinese tires under Section 421 to protect US manufacturers.
Experts anticipate that Trump, if re-elected, might pursue a more forceful and extensive approach, targeting broader trade scopes and imposing higher tariffs. Similar to the Biden administration, Trump might also voice national security concerns to rationalize trade barriers imposition. This scenario could potentially affect Vietnam through these policies.
To navigate the intricate geopolitical landscape over the next four years and ensure economic progression and stability, Vietnam must implement a strategy to enhance its economy across various sectors. This includes diversifying supply chains, strengthening regional trade ties, and boosting local production.
Economists suggest that a critical step is to diversify supply chains and reduce excessive dependence on Chinese components. Vietnam can explore alternative suppliers from neighboring countries like South Korea, Japan, and India.
While these nations may not be as competitive as China in terms of production and logistic costs, broadening the source of supplies can help Vietnam mitigate risks and enhance market resilience, especially when exporting products to the US.
Furthermore, Vietnam should enhance trade connections with other major economies such as India, ASEAN nations, and China to lessen reliance on the US market and diversify export activities.
The growth of vibrant and rapidly advancing economies in the region, such as India, will bring about potential collaboration and investment prospects. With India anticipated to emerge as the second-largest Asian economy in the future, the Indian government’s Act East policy will facilitate bi-directional trade partnerships.
Boosting investments to cultivate domestic supply material production is also a vital strategy. Enhancing local production will assist Vietnam in nurturing more independent industries and reducing dependence on imported components.
The ongoing government efforts in Vietnam to attract foreign investments in high-tech sectors like semiconductors and upgrade the skills of domestic workers suggest that Vietnam is on the right path toward achieving its objectives.
Vietnam can draw insights from other Asian nations, where successful relations with Donald Trump personally have advanced national interests.
For instance, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cultivated a friendship with Trump around the 2016 election transition and early 2017, leveraging Trump’s push for security allies to contribute more to national defense costs to bolster Japan’s military infrastructure. Similarly, former South Korean President Moon Jae-in utilized the Trump-Kim Jong-un rapport as a base to pursue a strategy concerning North Korea.
Nevertheless, Vietnam and its regional counterparts should anticipate potential staff changes in Trump’s second term.
In his initial tenure, Trump had numerous seasoned policymakers with prior Republican administration experience. Yet, accounts of the White House’s operations during Trump’s leadership, from Michael Wolff’s ‘Fire and Fury’ to Jared Kushner’s ‘Breaking History,’ suggest that officials were frequently replaced within one or two years.
Vietnam should leverage its geopolitical advantages, which hold significance in negotiations with the US, and sustain these advantages regardless of the election outcome. Vietnam’s balanced and self-reliant political strategy will remain a key asset in talks with Washington, encouraging successive US administrations to fortify the comprehensive partnership between the two countries.
