Green Transport Solutions for Vietnam’s Net-Zero Emissions Goal by 2050

Professor Dr. Le Anh Tuan from Hanoi University of Science and Technology has proposed three scenarios along with four strategies aimed at achieving net-zero emissions in Vietnam by 2050.

Scenario Overview

In the first scenario, Vietnam continues with its typical transport approach without implementing any measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions. This would likely lead to a significant rise in gasoline and oil demand from 2025 to 2050, with emissions escalating from 86.16 million tons to 273.21 million tons.

The second scenario envisions a gradual cut in emissions through domestic resources, focusing on electric and green energy vehicles. Emissions would rise minimally, reaching 171.64 million tons by 2050, a reduction of 30% compared to the first scenario, though oil and gasoline would still dominate the energy mix.

Scenario three aims for net-zero emissions with international collaboration, leveraging various policies to achieve a decrease in emissions from 75.15 million tons to just 30.34 million tons in 25 years, with a notable shift toward green energy sources like electricity and hydrogen.

Proposed Solutions

The strategies include enhancing energy efficiency, encouraging the use of public transport over private cars, increasing land-based cargo transport as opposed to waterways, and transitioning energy sources.

Professor Tuan highlights that the second and third scenarios are more promising, albeit requiring substantial investments of approximately $1.18 trillion (VND29.3 quadrillion) and $1.23 trillion (VND30.5 quadrillion) respectively.

Charging Infrastructure Development

To facilitate a switch from internal combustion engines to cleaner energy, establishing charging stations is crucial and forms the backbone of the transition plan.

Initial investments for charging stations are estimated to range from $31.76 billion (VND792 trillion) for Scenario 2 to $90.88 billion (VND2.26 quadrillion) for Scenario 3.

Current State of Electric Vehicles in Vietnam

VinFast has developed the largest network of charging stations in Vietnam, operating 3,000 stations with 150,000 charging portals. The electric vehicle market is just beginning, primarily led by VinFast, with other brands like Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz entering as well. However, public charging infrastructure remains underdeveloped, often relying on third-party support.

Tuan notes that for every charging station, there are currently about 9.44 electric vehicles (EVs) in Vietnam, nearly meeting the International Energy Agency’s recommended ratio of 10 EVs per station. In comparison, China is at 7.2, New Zealand at 57, and South Korea at 2.3.

Projected figures suggest that Vietnam will need 201,434 public charging stations by 2030, increasing to 1,536,800 by 2050, alongside significant expansions for electric buses.

Challenges for Charging Station Development

Nguyen Dac Hung of iCharge points out that the largest hurdle for establishing charging stations is the high investment costs, especially when EV growth remains slow.

By 2030, Hung forecasts that electric vehicles might constitute 30% of the market, with 1 million expected by 2028 and 3.5 million by 2040. Currently, there are about 6 million traditional fuel-powered cars on the roads, with 400,000 newly registered vehicles as of late 2023.

To address the infrastructure gap, iCharge plans to roll out 100 charging stations in 2024, expanding to 500 in 2025, and 1,000 by 2027, eventually reaching 2,000 stations by 2030.

There are plans for charging stations with various capacities (22kw, 60-80kw, and 120kw), requiring an initial investment of approximately VND700 million for the mid-range capacity stations and VND1.2 billion for the highest capacity stations. This doesn’t include additional costs for electricity supply connections, licenses, and rents.