Brian Jeffrey
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reports that the Northwest Pacific is currently experiencing the peak of its typhoon season.
This morning (September 16), Typhoon Bebinca struck Shanghai, China, with winds reaching level 14—the highest recorded in the region in 72 years.
Another typhoon, Pulasan, is also forming in the Northwest Pacific, projected to take a path similar to that of Bebinca shortly.
Additionally, a tropical depression has appeared over the eastern waters near the Philippines and is predicted to move into the East Sea, potentially developing into storm number 4.
Forecast for Storm Development
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of the Weather Forecasting Department, shared initial observations concerning the tropical depression, suggesting it may evolve into storm number 4.
As of 1:00 PM today, the tropical depression was detected in the eastern waters near the Luzon Archipelago, with winds at level 6. It is expected to move west at 15-20 km/h within the next 24 hours.
Mr. Huong noted that the depression’s location mirrors where Typhoon Yagi originated; however, current environmental conditions are less conducive than they were for storm number 3.
The depression will contend for moisture and energy with Typhoon Pulasan, which could slow its development as it moves into the East Sea.
Furthermore, this system will interact with unstable steering flows from the subtropical high, and an incoming cold front around September 19 may influence its development.
“Considering the surrounding atmospheric conditions, the forecasted path for the tropical depression, which is likely to intensify into storm number 4, is anticipated to be more intricate than for Typhoon Yagi,” emphasized Mr. Huong.
Possible Impact Scenarios
Mr. Huong described two possible scenarios as the tropical depression enters the East Sea by September 17, likely intensifying into a typhoon by September 18:
1. The storm could escalate into a typhoon, heading toward Central Vietnam.
2. Alternatively, it might veer west-northwest, impacting the Northern and North Central regions instead.
“Forecast models, both local and international, indicate that the intensity of the emerging typhoon will be weaker than that of Typhoon Yagi,” Mr. Huong stated.
While storm number 4 is expected to strengthen, uncertainties about its trajectory and potential land impact persist. High winds and rough seas are anticipated; however, its effect on mainland Vietnam will largely depend on its evolution as it enters the East Sea.
Weather Alerts for September 17 and 18
In the northern East Sea, including the Paracel Islands and the northern central region, winds are expected to reach levels 6-7, with gusts nearing level 10 near the storm’s center. Conditions will be choppy with wave heights of 3-5 meters.
From Ninh Thuan to Ca Mau in the southern central East Sea and the southern East Sea (including the Spratly Islands), winds are forecasted at level 6, occasionally rising to level 7, with gusts of level 8-9 and rough seas producing waves of 3-5 meters.
The area from Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand will see southwest winds at level 5, possibly reaching level 6 with gusts up to 7-8, along with rough seas and waves between 2-3 meters high.
Bao Anh
