Brian Jeffrey
The Vietnamese government aims for the country’s GDP to increase by 8.3%-8.5% in 2025 and exceed 10% in 2026. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh acknowledged the ambitious nature of these goals, noting they come with considerable challenges but are ultimately achievable.
On July 16, Prime Minister Chinh led a virtual conference with local leaders to explore the economic growth plans for 2025, reviewing the required tasks and strategies for achieving these objectives.
During the conference, Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang outlined two potential growth scenarios for 2025.
The first scenario predicts an overall growth rate of 8%, with the third quarter at 8.3% and the fourth quarter at 8.5%, resulting in a GDP exceeding $508 billion, and per capita income over $5,000.
The second, more ambitious scenario estimates GDP growth at 8.3%-8.5%, projecting Q3 growth of 8.9%-9.2% and Q4 growth of 9.1%-9.5%. This would lead to a total GDP of over $510 billion and a per capita income around $5,020.
The Ministry of Finance proposed that the government adopt the second scenario to facilitate a 10% growth rate in 2026.
At the conclusion of the meeting, Prime Minister Chinh highlighted key objectives: maintaining macroeconomic stability, keeping inflation below 4.5%, aiming for GDP growth of 8.3%-8.5% in 2025 and above 10% in 2026, and ensuring the economy remains balanced.
In 2025, total social investment is anticipated to reach about 2.8 quadrillion VND (nearly $110 billion), including 1 quadrillion VND ($39 billion) in public investment and 1.8 quadrillion VND ($71 billion) from other sources. The Prime Minister emphasized the importance of managing public debt, government borrowing, and the fiscal deficit while enhancing the population’s living standards.
While acknowledging the challenges of these targets, he warned that failure to meet them could adversely affect long-term objectives, including Vietnam’s centennial development goals. Nevertheless, he insisted that these targets are feasible.
PM Chinh urged the political system to act decisively, efficiently, and responsibly, adhering to the “six clarities” principle: clear roles, tasks, deadlines, responsibilities, outcomes, and authority.
He stressed the need for proactive and adaptable monetary policies. The State Bank of Vietnam should focus on stabilizing the exchange rate, reducing interest rates where possible, supporting production and livelihoods, and channeling credit towards digital, green, and circular economies, along with social housing initiatives.
Monetary and fiscal strategies must be effectively coordinated to bolster and stimulate economic growth.
On infrastructure improvements, the Prime Minister emphasized achieving targets for highways, coastal roads, and rail systems. Local governments overseeing infrastructure projects must take on greater responsibility and accountability.
He also directed the Ministry of Justice and relevant authorities to eliminate bureaucratic obstacles while prioritizing the development of a skilled workforce, particularly in burgeoning sectors like digital, green, and circular economies.
In the agricultural sector, PM Chinh underscored the significance of food security and enhancing export opportunities to countries such as China, the Middle East, Africa, and South America.
In terms of culture and tourism, he advocated for the growth of cultural and entertainment sectors and the implementation of appropriate visa policies, with a goal of attracting 25 million international tourists by 2025.
He called for a greater emphasis on decentralization, resource management, operational capacity, and oversight. Simplifying administrative processes to ease burdens on citizens and businesses was also stressed.
State-owned enterprises must target growth rates of around 10%, surpassing the national average, by utilizing their resources effectively.
Local authorities were encouraged to be proactive and innovative, leveraging their delegated powers without dependency.
It is essential to establish a flexible, ongoing evaluation system to facilitate necessary adjustments. Local officials should be skilled, community-oriented, and effective problem-solvers.
Lastly, the Prime Minister instructed all ministries and localities to conduct Party Congresses successfully while maintaining momentum for economic growth.
He called for a government resolution focused on the 2025 growth targets that is realistic, actionable, and results-driven, incorporating comprehensive, synchronized strategies to achieve set goals.
