Brian Jeffrey
Discussion Points on a Railway Development Project
The National Assembly faced two key questions: whether to approve a comprehensive railway development project and if they supported it, to consider initiating a trial for a railway segment, with results to be reported back for further evaluation.
The voting outcome revealed that 41% opposed the project, while 37% were in favor, with the rest abstaining. Some delegates from the Central Committee had previously supported the idea but chose to vote against it during the Assembly session.
As the first proposition was rejected, the second one was also dismissed. The assembly members expressed concerns primarily regarding funding, uncertainty about the impact of the project, technological choices, and overall railway development plans.
I was among those in support of a pilot project, specifically a trial of the railway section from HCM City to Nha Trang. It is vital, however, to address financing, as the projected capital requirement of $56 billion is substantial.
Given the current economic climate and inflationary pressures, gaining public favor remains a challenge. Nevertheless, the trial could foster industry development and enhance our technical skills and workforce capabilities.
Focus on Human Resources
One of my primary concerns is the availability of skilled labor. For such a significant project, we need a workforce that excels in areas like design, execution, technology, management, and maintenance of the railway.
If we lack competent engineers and laborers, the operation of the railway could be compromised.
Thus, immediate training for workers is essential, similar to the approaches taken in training staff for nuclear power facilities.
In mobilizing resources for Vietnam’s high-speed railways—covering design, construction, technology transfer, and management—human resources present a significant hurdle, far surpassing financial challenges. The current skill level among Vietnamese workers does not meet the safety standards required for construction and operation.
If Vietnam moves forward with a North-South passenger railway aimed at 350 km/h, engagement of highly skilled contractors and professionals from developed countries, such as Japan, is crucial.
Capital Mobilization Insights
In my view, securing capital is manageable. Financial expert Le Xuan Nghia and I concur that commercial banks are likely to purchase government bonds. Annually, the project requires about $5.6 billion, less than 1% of the country’s GDP in its initial year, a figure that should decrease as GDP grows in subsequent years.
The Deputy Minister of Finance has indicated on a government portal that capital mobilization and debt repayment will not pose challenges. Similarly, the Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment noted that public and government debts remain below permissible limits.
Both ministries have assured stakeholders that capital mobilization will not detract from allocations to other sectors, including transportation, energy, agriculture, and culture.
We should have confidence in their projections, while keeping in mind that these plans will be subject to further review by the State Appraisal Council and other relevant bodies.
… To be continued
