Brian Jeffrey
According to Nguyen Duc Hoa, the Deputy Director of the Climate Forecasting Department at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, from October 11 to November 10, Vietnam is projected to experience average temperatures that are 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above the usual levels for this time of year.
During this period, there is a heightened likelihood of various extreme weather occurrences such as storms, tropical depressions, cold fronts, lightning strikes, and tornadoes.
Specifically, rainfall levels in the Eastern Northern Region and North Central Region are expected to align with historical averages. In contrast, the Western Northern Region, Central Region, South-Central Region, Central Highlands, and Southern Vietnam may see rainfall increases of 10 to 30% above long-term averages. Notably, the Central Region is at risk of experiencing heavy rain. Thunderstorms nationwide may also bring along lightning, hail, and strong winds.
Mr. Hoa indicated that the upcoming month could witness storm activity or tropical depressions in the East Sea, potentially reaching or slightly exceeding average historical levels (with a long-term average of 1.9 storms in the East Sea and 0.8 making landfall).
Additionally, an uptick in the frequency and strength of cold fronts is anticipated during this forecasting window.
As per the meteorological agency, cold air is predicted to return on October 13 and again on October 19-20. From October 14 to 16, areas in the northern mountainous and midland regions will face scattered showers and thunderstorms due to the interaction between cold air and upper-level wind patterns. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected in the Central and South-Central Regions, as well as the Central Highlands and Southern Vietnam.
Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam, the Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, estimated that temperatures in the Northern Region and the Central Regions will dip slightly, about 0.5 degrees lower than normal from November to December.
By the end of December, the Northern Region may encounter extended cold spells reminiscent of those in previous years, with a continual increase in cold air activity predicted for January and February 2025. This could lead to severe cold and frost in Northern provinces, with potential snowfall and ice formation in mountainous regions.
Weather Forecast for Northern Vietnam:
– From October 14-18: Expect scattered morning fog and isolated rain, with partly sunny afternoons. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the northern mountainous and midland regions from October 14-16.
Weather Forecast for Central Vietnam:
– North Central Region: Isolated rain accompanied by scattered morning fog.
– Central Area: Anticipate thunderstorms and scattered rain, particularly heavy rain on October 14-15.
– South Central Region: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, with scattered rainfall likely in the afternoon and evening.
Central Highlands and Southern Vietnam:
– From October 13-18: Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon and evening, including isolated heavy rain in the Southern Central Highlands and Southern Vietnam.
Water levels in Central Highlands’ rivers are likely to change gradually, while rivers in Southern Vietnam will see fluctuations connected to tidal patterns.
Hanoi:
– From October 13-18: Anticipate isolated rain with scattered morning fog, and partly sunny afternoons.
It is crucial to recognize that thunderstorms in these areas may result in tornadoes, strong winds, and lightning strikes.
Furthermore, from October 13-18, the northern East Sea will experience waves of 2-3 meters, accompanied by rough sea conditions. Along the coast from Quang Tri to Binh Thuan, waves will measure between 1.5-2.5 meters from October 13-15, decreasing afterward to 1-2 meters. Other areas are expected to see waves generally beneath 2 meters.
The meteorological agency has also cautioned that from October 17-22, high tidal levels along the southeastern coastline may pose flooding risks in low-lying areas and along rivers in the southeastern region, further hampering flood drainage following potential Mekong River flooding.
