Vietnam Encouraged to Involve Retirees as Birth Rate Plummets to 1.91

Vietnam’s Declining Fertility Rates and Aging Population

The General Statistics Office (GSO) has revealed a significant drop in Vietnam’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which fell sharply from 1.96 in 2023 to 1.91 in 2024 after a decade and a half of stability.

In urban regions, the fertility rate is particularly low, averaging just 1.67 children per woman, in contrast to 2.08 in rural areas. Notably, Ho Chi Minh City reported the lowest TFR nationwide at 1.39, while Ha Giang recorded the highest at 2.69.

This trend is consistent with patterns observed in other countries such as Japan (TFR of 1.26), South Korea (0.78), and among OECD nations, which have an average TFR of 1.5. It is well-documented that once fertility rates decrease, reversing the trend poses significant challenges.

The Aging Population Crisis

Since 2011, Vietnam has experienced rapid population aging. As of 2024, there are 14.2 million individuals aged 60 and above, marking an increase of 4.7 million since 2014. This number is projected to rise to 18 million by 2030.

The GSO pointed out the pressing issues arising from both declining birth rates and an aging population, which together put pressure on the economy. The labor force is shrinking, healthcare costs are rising, and there is a greater demand for social services.

In the short term, an aging workforce can slow down economic progress, whereas long-term effects could disrupt various economic, social, and cultural aspects.

Proposed Solutions

To tackle these challenges, the GSO has recommended several strategies:

• Boosting Birth Rates: Implementing policies that align with Vietnam’s economic and cultural context to help increase fertility rates.
• Involving Older Workers: Establishing incentives for retirees, particularly those aged 60-75 with valuable skills, to remain active in the workforce.
• Creating Jobs for Seniors: Developing policies to offer appropriate employment opportunities and enhance income for elderly individuals.

Many retirees in good health can still play meaningful roles in the economy. By leveraging their expertise, we can alleviate dependency ratios while promoting economic activity and sharing knowledge between generations.

The GSO stressed the necessity of forward-thinking labor policies that effectively reconcile economic needs with the realities of an aging population to ensure sustainable growth and progress going forward.