Brian Jeffrey
Should it materialize, this system would mark the first typhoon of 2025, impacting both the East Sea and the broader Northwest Pacific region. Nevertheless, the storm has not yet fully formed, and several factors are still in play—experts advise that a clearer forecast will need an additional 1–2 days of observation.
On the evening of June 9, an online meeting was convened by the Hydrometeorological Agency, part of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, to discuss the tropical low-pressure system and its potential as the year’s inaugural storm.
This session was led by Nguyen Thuong Hien, Director of the Hydrometeorological Agency, and included participants from weather forecasting centers in northern and central Vietnam, alongside specialists from the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change.
During the discussion, Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, noted that the tropical low-pressure system shows promise for transformation into a storm. If this occurs, it could be recognized as the first officially named storm of 2025 within the area.
Khiem mentioned that prediction models currently indicate the storm may approach Vietnam’s Paracel Islands (Hoang Sa) before veering north towards Guangdong Province in China.
Nevertheless, there are also less likely scenarios suggesting a westward path toward Hainan Island, which could potentially lead the storm into Vietnam’s Gulf of Tonkin.
“Given that the storm is still not fully formed, many changes are possible,” Khiem pointed out. “We’ll need to maintain vigilant observation over the next 1–2 days for a more precise assessment of its strength and potential effects on marine and mainland areas of Vietnam.”
Nguyen Van Huong, head of the Weather Forecasting Division, added that the low-pressure system is presently situated over waters where sea surface temperatures exceed 30°C, alongside diminishing vertical wind shear—conditions that are conducive for intensification into a tropical depression.
Current international forecasts suggest that the system could escalate to a tropical depression by the morning of June 10, and possibly become a typhoon by early June 11, with peak sustained winds reaching levels 9–10 (strong tropical storm).
Hoang Duc Cuong, Deputy Director of the Hydrometeorological Agency, cautioned that the storm may display “complex and unpredictable” patterns, with significant strength and a broad wind field, highlighting the need for diligent monitoring in the upcoming days.
In the short term, Khiem indicated that the primary concern over the next 24–48 hours will be strong winds affecting vessels in the central and northern East Sea, accompanied by possible thunderstorms and squalls from the storm’s outer circulation.
During the meeting, Director Hien instructed all meteorological bodies to closely track the system, maintain clear communication with international weather organizations, and ensure timely and accurate forecasts and alerts to mitigate possible damages.
