Brian Jeffrey
Vietnam’s Agricultural Exports Show Mixed Results
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development’s recent report indicates that Vietnam’s agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports totaled $5.08 billion in January 2025, reflecting a 4.9% drop compared to January 2024.
Several major exports, including rice, fruits, cashews, and timber, experienced declines, though coffee exports presented a unique case with strong performance.
In January 2025, Vietnam shipped out 140,000 tons of coffee, a significant 41.1% decrease from the previous year. Surprisingly, the export value rose by 5%, hitting $763 million, the highest ever for a single month.
This surge in revenue can be attributed to soaring coffee prices, with the average export price climbing to $5,450 per ton, an increase of 78.5% year-on-year.
In this context, coffee has surpassed both fruits, which brought in $400 million, and seafood at $750 million, positioning it as the second-largest agricultural export after timber, which reached $1.4 billion.
Coffee Export Trends for 2024
Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2024 amounted to 1.3 million tons, generating $5.62 billion in total revenue. This represented a 17.1% reduction in volume compared to 2023, yet value soared by 32.5%.
The 2024 average export price of Vietnamese coffee was $4,178 per ton, reflecting a 59.9% rise from the previous year.
Germany, Italy, and Spain emerged as the leading markets for Vietnamese coffee, accounting for 10.7%, 8.2%, and 7.9% of exports, respectively. Among Vietnam’s primary export destinations, Malaysia saw the fastest growth with exports doubling, while the Netherlands reported a 94% increase, and Belgium had a modest growth of 9.3%.
Vietnam is a major global producer of robusta coffee, which constitutes 90% of its coffee-growing area.
According to Taste Atlas, Vietnamese robusta coffee has a unique caramelized taste with a hint of bitterness when roasted. It pairs well with condensed milk, creating a harmonious flavor, unlike arabica, which has a more acidic taste and does not combine as easily with milk.
During the Lunar New Year, supply issues from Vietnam led to a spike in robusta prices, reaching a peak of $5,609 per ton on January 31.
Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook
As of February 6, robusta prices on the London market continued to rise, hitting $5,643 per ton for March contracts and $5,646 for May 2025 contracts.
In Vietnam, local coffee bean prices are now between VND 129,000 and 130,000 ($5.10–$5.14) per kilogram, nearing the previous record of VND 131,000 ($5.18) from mid-2024. Analysts speculate that prices might rise to VND 150,000 ($5.93) or beyond. Traditionally, coffee prices dip during peak harvest (November to January), followed by a rebound as global demand shifts to Vietnamese products.
Industry Insights and Challenges
Nguyen Thanh Thuy, CEO of Golden Beans Coffee (SHIN Coffee), shared insights with VietNamNet about the fluid dynamics in the global coffee sector in 2025, emphasizing the challenges posed by climate change in significant coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam.
Vietnam’s coffee export volume in 2025 is anticipated to be 24.4 million bags, a 1.8 million bag increase. However, Thuy cautioned that maintaining high-quality raw materials will be a struggle. While rising prices offer economic advantages, they do not automatically ensure quality improvements.
In 2024, despite record revenues, many Vietnamese exporters faced intense price competition and supply chain challenges.
Yet Thuy remains positive, noting that coffee consumption in key markets continues to increase, presenting promising opportunities for Vietnam’s coffee exports. Factors such as climate issues, supply-demand discrepancies, and geopolitical changes are crucial in influencing the market’s trajectory, so businesses must be vigilant in navigating both risks and opportunities in the global coffee landscape.
