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USMNT Faces Guatemala: Key Predictions and Betting Insights

USA vs. Guatemala prediction, odds, betting tips, and best bets for USMNT in Gold Cup semifinals 2025 image

The United States is set to vie for a place in the 2025 Gold Cup final as they face Guatemala in St. Louis this Wednesday.

Aiming to reclaim their dominance in the CONCACAF championship and knock off defending titleholders Mexico, the USMNT must first overcome this challenge for a potential final clash against their neighboring rivals.

Despite suffering losses in pre-tournament matches, the U.S. has showcased strong performances throughout the Gold Cup against regional foes. Under Mauricio Pochettino, the team topped their group with a perfect record of three wins, and advanced past Costa Rica in the quarterfinals through a nail-biting penalty shootout thanks to the outstanding play of Matt Freese.

Guatemala secured their spot in the knockout stage by finishing second in Group C behind Panama, then managed to upset Canada in the quarterfinals in their own penalty shootout. Rubio Rubin, a former member of the USMNT, netted the equalizer for Guatemala with 20 minutes left to play.

The Sporting News offers insights on bets and predictions to enhance your experience during the match.

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USA vs. Guatemala prediction and odds

  • Score prediction: USA 4-1 Guatemala

The United States has performed well in this Gold Cup against weaker teams, demolishing Trinidad & Tobago 6-0 in the opening game and overpowering Haiti and Saudi Arabia, though the final scores may not fully reflect their dominance.

Even throughout their shootout win against Costa Rica, the U.S. largely controlled the game, despite a couple of individual errors that allowed their opponents to stay competitive.

Historically, the U.S. has dominated Guatemala, winning four out of their last five encounters by a staggering 17-1 aggregated score, with the sole loss occurring during a 2016 World Cup qualifier in Guatemala—a defeat the U.S. avenged just days later with a 4-0 home victory.

As long as the United States remains composed and continues to work effectively as a team, they should navigate this match with relative ease.

Paddy Power
USA win 2/9
Draw 4/1
Guatemala win 9/1
Both teams
to score
Y: 5/4
N: 7/10
Over / Under
2.5 goals
O: 73/100
U: 11/10
USA
to advance
1/9
Guatemala
to advance
5/1

USA vs. Guatemala best bet

  • Pick: Both teams to score — YES
  • Odds: 5/4 (Betway)

While we anticipate a U.S. victory, the team has also shown a tendency for mistakes this summer against various opponents. They managed to keep clean sheets against Trinidad & Tobago, who struggled throughout the tournament, and against a defensively-minded Saudi Arabia, but their defensive standards have fluctuated in other matches.

The U.S. has made several errors in their pre-tournament friendlies, allowing soft goals against both Haiti and Costa Rica.

On the other hand, Guatemala can capitalize on the chances they are given. They secured three goals against Guadeloupe and managed to score against Jamaica and Canada, with their only match without a goal occurring when they rotated the squad against Panama.

USA vs. Guatemala prop bet

  • Pick: USA over 6.5 total corners
  • Odds: 6/5 (Betway)

The U.S. has focused on wide play as a key strategy, especially when opponents try to neutralize Malik Tillman’s central playmaking.

They earned nine corners against Costa Rica while pushing for the equalizer, managed six against Haiti, and claimed 10 against Trinidad & Tobago in a match they completely controlled. The only game in the Gold Cup where they fell short on corners was against Saudi Arabia, who prioritized defense.

Guatemala tends to concede corners so long as opponents lack space in the middle. They allowed nine to a Canada team with ten players, eight against Guadeloupe, and seven against Panama.

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USA vs. Guatemala starting lineups and team updates

Mauricio Pochettino has retained faith in goalkeeper Matt Freese, who made a notable error against Haiti but redeemed himself with his penalty shootout performance. It’s unlikely there will be significant changes to the lineup moving forward, although a left-back switch may be in consideration, as Max Arfsten has faced defensive challenges. John Tolkin could be brought in.

Johnny Cardoso is sidelined with an ankle issue and missed the last match, while Haji Wright is out for the rest of the Gold Cup due to an Achilles injury.

The U.S. is also missing regular players Sergino Dest, Antonee Robinson, Ricardo Pepi, and Folarin Balogun, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Gio Reyna are unavailable due to participation in the Club World Cup. Christian Pulisic and Yunus Musah opted to take the summer off and are not in the squad.

Yellow card sanctions reset in the semifinals, meaning players can only be suspended from the final if they receive red cards in this matchup.

  • USA’s projected starting XI (4-3-3, left to right): Freese (GK) — Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten — Berhalter, Adams, de la Torre — Tillman, Agyemang, Luna.

Injured: Cardoso (ankle), Wright (Achilles), Pepi (knee), Steffen (knee), Dest (fitness/knee), A. Robinson (knee), Balogun (ankle).
Suspended: None.

Guatemala’s forward line is spearheaded by former U.S. international Rubio Rubin, who switched allegiance to Guatemala in 2022 after his previous seven appearances for the USMNT did not cap-tie him.

They boast two players active with MLS: goalkeeper Nicolas Hagen, who backs up American starter Patrick Schulte at Columbus Crew, and right-back Aaron Herrera, currently with D.C. United.

Head coach Luis Fernando Tena opted not to select veterans Alejandro Galindo and Carlos Mejia, both with over 50 caps but currently 33 years old.

  • Guatemala starting XI (5-3-2, left to right): Navarro (GK) — Herrera, Pinto, Samayoa, Morales — Robles, Rosales, Munoz — Escobar, Rubin, Santis.

Injured: None.
Suspended: None.

Viewing details for USA vs. Guatemala in Concacaf Gold Cup

  • Date: Thursday, July 3, 2025
  • Location: Energizer Park, St. Louis, Missouri
  • Time: 12:00 a.m. BST
  • Broadcast: Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports 2

RELATED LINKS:

  • How to place bets on football
  • Latest insights on Club World Cup betting
  • Predictions for the Club World Cup winner: current odds

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