Brian Jeffrey
Population Trends in Vietnam for 2024
The General Department of Population, under the Ministry of Health, has projected that seven provinces in Vietnam will experience a decline in population by 2024.
These provinces include Tay Ninh, Vinh Long, Dong Thap, An Giang, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, and Ca Mau. Notably, An Giang is anticipated to face the most significant drop, with a negative growth rate of -0.7%. The remaining provinces may see slight declines between -0.1% and -0.4%.
Additionally, Ben Tre and Tra Vinh are expected to see no growth in their populations for the upcoming year. With An Giang’s current population of about 1.9 million, a loss of approximately 13,300 residents is expected due to this trend.
In contrast, Ho Chi Minh City, which currently has the country’s lowest fertility rate at 1.32 children per woman, is anticipated to grow by 1.9% in 2024, reaching nearly 9.9 million residents. However, this growth is predicted to slow down over time, decreasing from 1.4% in 2029 to 0.5% by 2045.
As for Vietnam’s overall demographics, the population is expected to be around 100.3 million by the end of 2023, reflecting an increase of 835,000 from 2022, resulting in a growth rate of 0.85%. This rate is a decrease from the 0.98% observed in 2022, continuing a downward trend in population growth.
Previous Population Declines
In the past year, both Ca Mau and Hau Giang recorded reductions in their populations. Hau Giang saw a decline of -0.06% in 2022, followed by -0.16% in 2023, while Ca Mau experienced a -0.09% decrease in 2022 and -0.02% in 2023. Over the span of three years, Hau Giang lost about 1.6 million residents, and Ca Mau lost 1.4 million. For 2024, predictions indicate continued declines of -0.4% and -0.3% in Hau Giang and Ca Mau, respectively.
Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, a notable demographic expert, suggested that population growth in specific areas depends on a mix of factors such as birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns. He highlighted that regions like Thai Binh, Ben Tre, Nghe An, and Ha Tinh experience significant out-migration, which contributes to their slower population growth despite stable birth rates.
Concerns About the Mekong Delta
Former Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan expressed worries regarding the population decline in the Mekong Delta, stressing that without a considerable influx of migrants, these provinces may continue to lose residents.
Data from the General Statistics Office reveals that the fertility rate in the Southeast region is at 1.47 children per woman, and in the Mekong Delta, it is at 1.54—all beneath the replacement level.
Professor Nhan has proposed three strategies for addressing Vietnam’s demographic challenges to ensure a sustainable population. He pointed out that despite the fertility rate falling below replacement levels only in 2023 and 2024, the cultural significance of family in Vietnam remains strong. A majority of young individuals still aspire to marry and have more than two children.
He emphasized that with effective policies, future generations are likely to continue valuing family and childbirth. This corresponds to a survey by Associate Professor Nguyen Duc Vinh, indicating that nearly 72% of women in southern provinces wish to have more than two children, while only a small fraction (less than 7%) prefers to have just one child. Intriguingly, males expressed a greater desire for larger families compared to females.
To promote childbirth, Professor Nhan recommended various measures, such as reducing working hours to 40 hours per week, allowing more time for family life and personal pursuits. Additionally, he proposed adjusting the minimum wage to ensure it supports a family of four (two adults and two children), transitioning from a system based on minimum wages to one focused on living wages.
