Anna Daniels
The Cannes Film Festival has made its mark yet again, with Neon emerging as a major player by acquiring the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just An Accident along with other acclaimed titles. Now that the excitement has settled, the pressing question arises: will these selections succeed at the Oscars? Hollywood’s fervent quest to forecast Oscar winners transforms Cannes into a gamble—yet this year’s offerings feel more like a roll of the dice than a sure thing.
Traditionally, Cannes has served as a strong platform for Oscar contenders, with past Palme d’Or recipients like Anora (IndieWire) and Parasite taking home the Best Picture trophy. However, this year’s selection paints a more intricate picture. Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident may face obstacles in the International Film category if Iran opts not to submit it, compelling Neon to adapt their approach—similar to their experience with Anatomy of a Fall last year, which was overlooked by France for submission yet garnered five Oscar nominations (Deadline). Given the film’s engaging storyline and Panahi’s compelling narrative as a twice-imprisoned filmmaker, it could shine in categories like Best Picture, Director, or Screenplay, though the road ahead remains uncertain.
Neon’s successes continue, having also secured The Secret Agent, which won Best Actor for Wagner Moura and Best Director for Kleber Mendonça Filho, along with Sentimental Value, recipient of the Grand Prize (runner-up). The Norwegian drama Sentimental Value, directed by Joaquim Trier (known for The Worst Person in the World), received an extraordinary 19-minute standing ovation at Cannes and is already being touted as a serious contender for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay, alongside potential acting nominations for Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård (IndieWire). One post on X even proclaimed, “And the Oscar goes to Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value,” highlighting the film’s early momentum.
But here’s the twist: despite Neon’s impressive record at Cannes (six consecutive Palme d’Or victories), the transition from the Festival to the Academy Awards is rarely seamless. Last year’s Anatomy of a Fall was passed over by France for its International Film submission yet still excelled in other categories. This season, It Was Just An Accident could encounter similar political challenges, while Sentimental Value appears to be the safer choice—unless Norway complicates its submission strategy.
Let’s examine further. This isn’t the first time politically sensitive films have faced submission challenges in Hollywood. In 2023, Panahi’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig was put forth by Germany, not Iran, due to his residency there (Deadline). Could we see a similar scenario unfold? It’s possible, but Neon’s adaptability will be critical. Their experience with Anatomy of a Fall demonstrates they can navigate the Oscars effectively without traditional backing.
Then there’s Sentimental Value, which feels like The Worst Person in the World on a grander scale—deeper, more emotionally impactful, and featuring performances that could resonate with voters (in a positive manner). Both Renate Reinsve, already a favorite at Cannes, and veteran Stellan Skarsgård could easily secure nominations for their performances. However, it’s worth noting that Sentimental Value transcends being just a film; its 19-minute standing ovation at Cannes surpassed the length of some feature films (GoldDerby). This isn’t merely applause—it’s a resounding endorsement.
Meanwhile, The Secret Agent could emerge as Brazil’s unexpected contender. Wagner Moura’s victory for Best Actor at Cannes might open doors for an Oscar nod if Neon mounts a strong campaign. Additionally, Sirat, another film in Neon’s collection, secured a tie for the Jury Prize and could vie for Spain in the International Film category. Neon’s portfolio is rich and varied, but a wide selection doesn’t guarantee success—sometimes, it just leads to confusion.
Beyond Neon’s productions, Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague stands out as a wild card. While it was overlooked by the jury, it captured critics’ hearts as a tribute to the French New Wave, shot in black and white, and has the potential to enchant Academy voters reminiscent of The Artist in 2011 (Hollywood Reporter). Jodie Foster’s impressive French in Vie Privée and Jennifer Lawrence’s raw performance in Die My Love are also stirring interest, even if Lawrence’s project may polarize mainstream voters (backed by Mubi, so expect a vigorous campaign) (GoldDerby).
Additionally, June Squibb in Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut, Eleanor the Great, could potentially make history as the oldest Best Actress nominee at 95 if voters are captivated by her charm (GoldDerby). It’s akin to witnessing a beloved family member steal the spotlight during a reunion—only this family member has a history of accolades.
Other noteworthy films include Highest 2 Lowest, which may see nominations for Denzel Washington and Spike Lee, and Arco, a French animated film with an environmental message that could compete in the Best Animated Feature category (IndieWire). Films that might be divisive, such as Ari Aster’s Eddington and Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, could struggle to gain momentum despite their unique visions (Vanity Fair).
So what conclusions can we draw? Neon’s success at Cannes is significant, but the race for the Oscars is far from straightforward. Sentimental Value seems poised for various nominations, while It Was Just An Accident could follow in the footsteps of Anatomy of a Fall—a film that thrives outside mainstream categorizations. Don’t overlook underdogs like Nouvelle Vague or Die My Love. The Academy has a penchant for surprises, particularly when they come packaged with controversy and critical reception.
Brilliant or drab? You make the call—but one thing is clear: the path from Cannes to the Oscars resembles a circuitous maze rather than a direct route. Prepare for an intriguing ride, as the competition has only just begun.
