Brian Jeffrey
In a recent report to the National Assembly during its 9th session, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has highlighted significant changes in gold prices. By the end of 2024, the disparity between domestic SJC gold prices and global rates has been effectively managed, decreasing from a maximum of roughly 25% to about 3–5 million VND per tael (around 5–7%).
However, early 2025 saw global gold prices reaching all-time highs. As of April 23, the difference between domestic SJC gold and global market prices (when converted to local currency) has grown to 14.48 million VND per tael, approximately 13.62%.
The SBV governor identified two primary factors driving this trend:
Firstly, there is increasing investor optimism based on expectations of further rising global gold prices amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Secondly, the supply of SJC gold bars in the local market has remained unchanged since the beginning of 2025. Given the stability in both the foreign exchange and gold markets, the central bank feels there’s no need for intervention.
The SBV also noted the possibility that certain businesses or individuals might be exploiting market variations to speculate, drive up prices, and profit from them.
The bank will collaborate with various ministries—including Public Security, Industry and Trade, and Finance—to enhance supervision and oversight of gold trading entities and associated parties.
The objective is to quickly identify loopholes, discrepancies, or violations, enforce strict actions, and recommend necessary measures to higher authorities.
As of April 10, the average lending rate for new bank loans decreased to 6.34% per year, marking a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from the end of 2024.
By April 22, the exchange rate was approximately 25,896 VND/USD, reflecting a 1.64% increase since the end of 2024.
Nevertheless, the lending rate landscape may soon experience increased pressure. Though rates have fallen significantly, credit demand is expected to surge as the 2025 economic growth goal approaches.
Additionally, capital mobilization within the banking sector could face tough competition from other investment avenues like real estate and the stock market. Despite a global trend of declining interest rates, they remain high, and the international financial landscape is unstable, particularly following the U.S.’s announcement of its retaliatory tariff measures.
Moreover, the exchange rate and foreign exchange market are likely to continue facing significant pressures from complex international developments.
