Brian Jeffrey
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued its initial forecasts for Tet 2025, along with a summary of Vietnam’s expected climate trends for the upcoming year.
Forecasters indicate a low chance of tropical cyclones developing in the East Sea during Tet 2025.
From January 17–25 (lunar days 18–26), Northern Vietnam should experience light morning fog, transitioning to sunny and chilly daytime temperatures. The Central region, spanning from Thanh Hoa to Hue, will mainly see overcast skies but remain dry and cool.
Further south, from Da Nang to Binh Thuan, expect dry conditions with cool mornings and pleasant sunshine throughout the day. In the Central Highlands and Southern Vietnam, cloudy nights and early mornings with light fog will give way to sunny yet mild daytime weather.
As the end of January approaches (January 26–31), the northeast monsoon is anticipated to strengthen, leading to colder conditions in the North, particularly in mountainous regions that may face harsh cold spells. Light rain or drizzle is probable in the eastern Northern area.
The North Central region might experience some light rainfall, while temperatures remain on the cooler side. Scattered showers could be expected in the Central and South-Central regions, especially before January 28 (lunar day 29).
Conversely, the Central Highlands and Southern Vietnam are likely to stay dry with sunny weather, avoiding any heatwave conditions.
However, from January 30 to February 2 (lunar days 2–5 of Tet), southeastern coastal areas may encounter tidal surges, with peak tides possibly reaching up to 4.1 meters, which could lead to localized flooding in some coastal and estuarine areas.
In the Pacific’s equatorial regions, sea surface temperatures are currently lower than usual, suggesting weak La Niña conditions.
Between February and April 2025, sea temperatures are projected to gradually increase but will likely stay slightly below average until mid-year, when neutral conditions may return.
This pattern indicates:
Rainfall: Above-normal rainfall is anticipated in early 2025 across parts of Southeast Asia, including southern Vietnam, with the possibility of off-season rain during the traditionally dry period.
Storms: The East Sea is expected to see an average number of storms, with forecasts predicting around 11–13 storms or tropical depressions, five to six of which may affect Vietnam directly.
Heatwaves: Heatwaves are expected to commence in early March in southern Vietnam and extend to northwestern and central regions by April. While the heatwaves of 2025 may be less intense and shorter than those observed in 2024, their regional impact may still vary.
Cold spells: Northern Vietnam is likely to face notable cold waves from January to March 2025, which could bring freezing temperatures, frost, and potential snowfall in the mountainous areas.
Drought and salinity intrusion: The Mekong Delta is expected to undergo significant salinity intrusion from February to April 2025, potentially exceeding average levels and impacting agricultural production and water availability.
Moreover, six major tidal surges are predicted for the southeastern coast, with the most intense expected during November and December, where water levels in Vung Tau might rise beyond 4.3 meters.
In areas outside irrigation zones located in central and southern provinces, local droughts could occur from March to July 2025, particularly in regions like Phu Yen, Binh Thuan, Kon Tum, and Dak Lak.
