Brian Jeffrey
Storm No. 7, named Yinxing, has brought heavy rainfall to regions from Thua Thien Hue to Binh Dinh. Predictions indicate that Typhoon Toraji could form as Storm No. 8 in the East Sea within the next 24 to 48 hours, and there’s also the potential for Storm No. 9 to arise shortly after.
According to Nguyen Van Huong, the Head of Weather Forecasting at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, there are currently three active typhoons in the Pacific.
Storm No. 7 is situated in the East Sea off Vietnam’s coast; Typhoon Toraji is located east of the Philippines, and another storm, referred to as Man-yi, is further northwest in the Pacific.
In addition, a tropical depression exists between Typhoons Toraji and Man-yi.
Mr. Huong noted that these storms and the depression are aligned along an intertropical convergence zone that runs through the northern East Sea.
Storms and tropical depressions formed along this zone typically follow its path, which explains the influx of cyclones in the East Sea.
Currently, activity is ongoing with Storm No. 7, while Storm No. 8 is expected to develop soon, and Storm No. 9 may follow shortly thereafter.
Typhoon Toraji is anticipated to enter the East Sea between the late afternoon and evening of November 11, as stated by Mr. Huong.
Experts pointed out that the western Pacific is currently in a warm and humid state, providing enough energy to support the formation of storms, cyclones, and tropical depressions, resulting in the current storm pattern.
Forecasts suggest that November and December will maintain warm sea temperatures, likely leading to more tropical depressions and storms. Currently, the La Niña effect is mild, hovering just above neutral, but could lead to an increase in storm activity if it intensifies.
The ongoing storms are expected to create hazardous weather conditions in the northern and central regions of the East Sea, marked by strong winds, high waves, and turbulent seas that will persist for some time.
Additionally, a strong northeastern monsoon is predicted in the next 5-10 days, contributing to further turbulent sea conditions.
As of 4:00 PM on November 10, Storm No. 7 was located about 230 km northeast of the Hoang Sa Archipelago, in the northwestern section of the northern East Sea. The center of the storm is experiencing sustained winds of level 12 (118-133 km/h), with gusts reaching level 14. The storm is currently moving southwest at approximately 5 km/h.
In the next day, the storm will likely maintain its current course while increasing speed to 10-15 km/h and beginning to weaken. Forecasts suggest that by 4:00 PM on November 11, the storm’s center will be in western waters of the Hoang Sa Archipelago, with its intensity decreased to level 8, and gusts up to level 10, ultimately weakening into a tropical depression.
By 4:00 PM on November 12, it is expected that the tropical depression will dissipate into a low-pressure system affecting the land areas from Quang Ngai to Binh Dinh.
Due to the storm’s effects, moderate to heavy rains are anticipated from early November 12 to 13 in regions from Thua Thien Hue to Binh Dinh, with some areas possibly experiencing heavy rainfall amounts between 70-150 mm, and localized totals exceeding 250 mm. The heavy rain is expected to gradually ease after November 13.
Winds in the western waters of the northern East Sea (including the Hoang Sa Archipelago) will be strong, ranging from levels 7-9, with the areas close to the storm’s center feeling winds of levels 10-12 and gusts up to level 14. Sea waves could reach 3-5 meters, and up to 5-7 meters near the storm center, creating extremely rough conditions.
From tomorrow morning, coastal waters from Thua Thien Hue to Binh Dinh will likely witness wind intensification to levels 6-7, with gusts reaching level 9, and waves spiking to heights of 2-4 meters, alongside troublesome seas.
All vessels operating in these risky areas will face threats from thunderstorms, hefty winds, and large waves.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has indicated that the North will experience dry conditions, with morning fog and clear skies expected throughout the day.
In the Central region, scattered rain and thunderstorms will occur, with moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms likely along the Central Coast from November 12-13, potentially accompanied by tornadoes and strong gusts. Rivers in the Central and South-Central regions may see fluctuations, while the North-Central rivers are expected to change gradually.
The Central Highlands and southern areas will also observe scattered rain and thunderstorms, with the southwest experiencing similar weather from the evening of November 9-10.
Hanoi is expected to remain dry, with mild morning fog giving way to sunny weather throughout the day.
