Brian Jeffrey
Vietnam is about to witness a significant change in its weather patterns starting in September, as cold air arrives early and the frequency of storms and tropical depressions, particularly in the East Sea, increases. This shift is expected to grow more pronounced as the year progresses.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting states that there is a 60-70% likelihood of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transitioning to a La Niña phase between September and November. This transition could result in an above-average number of storm systems during this period.
The Center forecasts that the East Sea may experience as many as or more than the historical average of 5.9 storm systems, with a likelihood of more than the average 2.9 systems hitting Vietnam. This heightened activity is attributed to the anticipated La Niña conditions that commonly impact storm frequency and intensity in the region.
The regions most vulnerable to these conditions are Central and Southern Vietnam, where an increase in storm formation is anticipated. Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Hoang Phuc Lam, pointed out the potential for severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, and strong winds nationwide. While heatwaves may persist in the north and central areas in September, they are expected to diminish by October.
The onset of the rainy season in central Vietnam is projected to align with historical averages by late August, reaching its peak in October and November. With La Niña influence, rainfall across most parts of Vietnam, especially in the Northern and Central regions, could rise by 10-30%, while the Central Highlands and Southern regions might see a 5-20% increase.
Heading into December 2024 and early 2025, ENSO is likely to remain in a La Niña phase with a 65-75% probability. This may lead to continued storm activity close to the historical average for late-year systems. Furthermore, the rainy season might extend into mid-December in the Central, Central Highlands, and Southern regions, with unseasonal rains possible in early 2025.
Cold air events are expected to become more intense from late December onwards, potentially bringing prolonged cold spells and frost, with a significant impact on the northern mountainous regions of Vietnam. These conditions are expected to persist into January and February 2025.
Given these projections, it is essential for local authorities and residents to prepare for potentially severe weather conditions. Taking proactive measures, including disaster preparedness and public awareness drives, will be crucial in mitigating the effects of the anticipated weather anomalies.
Meteorologists and climatologists will be closely monitoring these developments, providing updates as more precise information becomes available. The primary objective remains ensuring the safety of citizens and minimizing the disruptive effects of these climatic events on the Vietnamese population.
