Brian Jeffrey
Data from Vietnam Customs reveals that in September, Vietnam imported 1.2 million tons of hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel, a notable 34% rise from August. This figure equates to 220% of the country’s domestic HRC production of 568,000 tons.
In total, during the first nine months of 2024, Vietnam has brought in nearly 8.8 million tons of HRC, marking a 26% increase from the same timeframe in 2023 and reaching 171% of local production. Of the total imports, a significant 72% or 6.3 million tons originated from China. This amount has already exceeded all HRC imports from China for the entirety of 2023.
In contrast, the local hot-rolled steel consumption in Vietnam has only reached 5.1 million tons.
China’s dominance in supplying HRC to Vietnam is largely due to its lower prices, which are between $30 to $70 per ton cheaper than other sources, depending on the type of steel. This pricing trend is a result of China’s surplus in steel production and a decrease in domestic demand, which has prompted Chinese manufacturers to export more at reduced prices, impacting the wider steel market.
A concerning development is the continued influx of HRC imports into Vietnam amidst an ongoing anti-dumping investigation. Trade defense analysts have voiced the need for the Ministry of Industry and Trade to accelerate its investigation to safeguard local production.
Dinh Quoc Thai, General Secretary of the Vietnam Steel Association, noted the competitive nature of the steel sector, yet highlighted that global oversupply leads many foreign manufacturers to resort to dumping excess stock, particularly when local markets face challenges.
This pattern makes steel one of the most scrutinized industries regarding trade defense measures, not only in Vietnam but internationally as well.
Recent trade defense initiatives have facilitated the growth of Vietnam’s steel sector, allowing it to compete with imports effectively in the local market. The industry has also established a robust value chain encompassing everything from hot-rolled to cold-rolled and coated steel, positioning itself for potential expansion into other export markets.
On July 26, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade initiated an investigation into anti-dumping measures concerning specific HRC products from China and India, in alignment with the Foreign Trade Management Law and the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement.
The investigation targets specific hot-rolled steels, both alloyed and non-alloyed, which have not undergone any processing beyond hot rolling, with thicknesses between 1.2 and 25.4mm and widths capped at 1,880mm. These products may contain oil coatings and have a carbon content below 0.6% by weight.
Under the Foreign Trade Management Law and Decree 10/2018/ND-CP, the investigating authorities may propose temporary anti-dumping duties based on preliminary investigation findings, with such duties limited to the determined dumping margin.
Regional neighbors like Thailand and Indonesia have already put in place trade defense measures against Chinese HRC steel imports. Their domestic production satisfies only 43% and 65% of their respective needs, and both countries have maintained anti-dumping duties since 2019.
Additionally, Turkey’s Ministry of Trade has concluded its own anti-dumping investigation regarding HRC imports from China, India, Japan, and Russia.
In the Official Gazette on October 11, 2024, decisions were published in connection with Notice No. 2023/31 concerning “Prevention of Unfair Competition in Imports.” This investigation included a range of HRC steel products categorized under tariff codes 7208, 7211, 7212, and 7225, resulting in the imposition of anti-dumping duties to protect domestic producers from imports from China, India, Japan, and Russia.
