Rita Odafe
Shehu Sani
Shehu Sani, a former lawmaker from Kaduna, believes that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is likely to win the upcoming 2027 elections if the opposition parties do not come together to form a coalition.
During an interview in Abuja on May 8, Sani pointed out the internal conflicts among opposition groups and the trend of members defecting to the ruling APC as key reasons for his outlook. “Evicting a ruling party mandates a coalition. The opposition must prioritize collective goals over their individual ambitions,” he remarked.
Sani observed that major opposition parties such as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) are not keen on cooperating. “The SDP and PDP have expressed no interest in a coalition, and the Labour Party appears to be acting independently, while the NNPP is also not in favor of an alliance. If they proceed without uniting, the APC will undoubtedly achieve a landslide victory in 2027,” he added.
He stressed that a united opposition could shift the election’s outcome significantly. “Unity would enable them to capture numerous seats and exert considerable influence. Their disunity cost them the 2023 election, and they risk repeating that mistake if they stay divided. Without collaboration, it’s a foregone conclusion for us in the APC,” he asserted.
Sani also discussed the lack of ideological distinction within Nigeria’s political parties, which he believes has normalized defection without consequences. “Political parties merely serve as tools for ambitious individuals. Their manifestos are so similar that membership changes can happen without significant repercussions. The only difference lies in their names,” he explained.
He further noted that it is not the ruling party’s duty to stop defections from opposition ranks; rather, the responsibility lies with the opposition to ensure stability among its members. “If a party doesn’t cater to its members, its functionality is compromised. The burden is on the opposition to retain their members,” he said.
Sani predicted an influx of defections to the APC, primarily stemming from unresolved issues within the opposition, particularly the PDP. “A one-party state enforces a single party, while we exist in a multi-party democracy. Many are leaving their parties not due to attractive offers but due to internal strife, particularly in the PDP, which struggles with leadership conflicts,” he elaborated.
He highlighted the ambiguity surrounding a recent Supreme Court ruling on the PDP’s leadership disputes as detrimental to political stability. “The court’s decision left much to be desired. A party with internal leadership issues creates uncertainty, especially with upcoming primaries; members will face dilemmas about which faction to affiliate with for candidacy,” he cautioned.
In conclusion, Sani suggests that this uncertainty will likely cause more politicians to defect from the PDP. “The hesitation over candidacy will lead to further departures from the PDP, particularly among new governors and senators unsure about their ticket prospects. The current situation doesn’t seem poised for change anytime soon,” he said.
