Frank Christian
England is looking to bounce back from a disheartening Nations League run as they gear up to visit Greece on Thursday, seeking to regain control of their group.
The previous meeting ended in a disappointing 2-1 defeat for the Three Lions at home, with a last-minute goal from Vangelis Pavlidis snatching the win right after Jude Bellingham had equalized for England.
This loss not only cost England the match but also saw them drop from the top of their group, following their earlier relegation to Nations League B.
With England currently trailing Greece by three points and facing a deficit of three goals on the tiebreaker, they must secure victories in their last two matches to ensure automatic promotion back to League A, or risk entering a playoff for promotion.
Interim manager Lee Carsley faces a tough challenge as he will be without several key players, including Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Kobbie Mainoo, and Jack Grealish, due to injuries or fitness issues.
Prediction and Odds for Greece vs. England
- Moneyline prediction: Greece (+300 on BetMGM)
- Score forecast: Greece 1-0 England
- Recommended bet: Greece double chance (-120)
There are compelling reasons to think Greece’s win last month wasn’t merely a coincidence, especially since they will be playing at home and have the chance to secure their lead in the group. A draw would guarantee their promotion, as they would remain three points ahead of England with only one match left and maintain the advantage in their head-to-head record.
Greece has been on a fantastic run, winning five matches in a row while showcasing solid defense. The only goal conceded during this streak came against England, despite facing only 12 shots with a total expected goals (xG) of just 0.84. Their attacking has also been impressive, surpassing their expected goals in three out of their last four matches.
The Greek side will aim to exploit England’s weakened lineup and look for opportunities to score, which would be a major outcome for them even with just a draw.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Greece win | +300 |
| Draw | +230 |
| England win | -110 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -105 N: -135 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: +105 U: -150 |
| England -0.5 goals |
-140 |
| Greece +0.5 goals |
+100 |
Match Details for Greece vs. England
- Date: November 14, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 8:45 p.m. local (2:45 p.m. ET / 11:45 a.m. PT)
- Venue: Olympic Stadium (Athens, Greece)
- Referee: Daniel Siebert (Germany)
- Last Encounter: England 1-2 Greece (October 10, 2024 | Nations League)
Best Bet for Greece vs. England
- Pick: Over 4.5 total cards
- Odds: +116 (FanDuel)
In their last match, the Italian referee issued six yellow cards, and with the stakes high for both teams, similar levels of intensity can be expected. With Germany’s Daniel Siebert officiating this game, a referee renowned for overseeing closely contested international matches, the potential for cards is heightened. In a recent Nations League match, he showed seven yellow cards and two red cards, illustrating his tendency to keep control in high-pressure situations.
Greece vs. England Prop Bet
- Pick: Greece to have 11+ total shots
- Odds: +125 (FanDuel)
In their previous encounter, Greece aggressively challenged England instead of merely defending, a tactic they are likely to employ again, especially in front of their home crowd. They plan to maintain an attacking mindset, aiming to gain possession and press forward rather than simply clearing the ball long. In the last match, Vangelis Pavlidis and Anastasios Bakasetas contributed significantly to their shot tally, and Bakasetas has been especially effective in recent international play.
