Frank Christian
The Premier League will see a flurry of matches throughout December, with Arsenal squaring off against Manchester United at the Emirates this Wednesday.
Currently sitting in second place, Arsenal is on a winning streak with three impressive victories. However, they find themselves nine points behind Liverpool, the league leaders, making every point crucial for their title aspirations.
As a result, Arsenal must secure a win, facing a revitalized Manchester United squad that recently achieved a stunning 4-0 victory over Everton, rekindling excitement among fans under new manager Ruben Amorim.
Despite their recent form, the Gunners are set to face a tough challenge as key players will be absent for the match against a strong Arsenal team.
Match Prediction and Odds
- Moneyline lean: Arsenal (-250 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Manchester United
Manchester United displayed a rejuvenated performance against Everton, yet statistical indicators imply that their 4-0 victory may not reflect their true quality. This match is likely to expose the disparity between their aspirations and the current composition of their squad, which new manager Amorim has limited time to reform.
On the other hand, Arsenal’s revival seems authentic, as they have bounced back from a sluggish start filled with unusual setbacks. While they can be unpredictable, they are expected to prevail in this encounter.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Arsenal win | -250 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Manchester United win | +650 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -105 N: -135 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -145 U: +105 |
| Arsenal -1.5 goals |
+105 |
| Manchester United +1.5 goals |
-150 |
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, December 4, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 8:15 p.m. local (3:15 p.m. ET / 12:15 p.m. PT)
- Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
- Referee: Sam Barrott, VAR: Jarred Gillett
- Previous Encounter: Manchester United 0-1 Arsenal (May 12, 2024 | Premier League)
Best Bet
- Best bet: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
- Pick: Manchester United under 0.5 total goals
- Odds: +100 (BetMGM)
Last match, we anticipated a low-scoring game for Arsenal against West Ham, which turned out to be a miscalculated expectation as they combined for seven first-half goals. Given this context, we’re opting for the same strategy for this match. Here’s why:
While Arsenal’s recent offensive statistics seem impressive, a regression to earlier metrics may be approaching. The three goals scored against Nottingham Forest were achieved with an xG of only 1.19. The five goals against Sporting and the chaotic performance against West Ham also reflect some improbabilities.
Manchester United’s four goals against Everton came from 11 attempts, with an xG of 1.07—indicating luck was involved as much as skill. Amorim’s debut saw them tally 11 shots with an xG of only 0.8 during their away game against Ipswich Town, which provides a clearer picture of their current offensive capabilities.
With recent performances influencing public perception, there’s considerable value in betting on lower scoring outcomes, as many expect both teams to excel offensively.
Prop Bet
- Pick: Harry Maguire to receive a yellow card
- Odds: +240 on FanDuel
Throughout his Premier League career against Manchester United, Bukayo Saka has earned numerous fouls, particularly in recent matches. While Diogo Dalot has managed to handle Saka effectively, Harry Maguire’s record against Arsenal has been less fortunate, having been cautioned in three of his last five meetings.
With Maguire likely stepping in for the suspended Lisandro Martinez and facing defensive responsibilities against Saka, he stands a solid chance of receiving a caution, despite his limited playing time this season.
