Brian Jeffrey
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) reported that Vietnam exported 902,000 tons of coffee in the first half of the year, generating $3.22 billion in revenue. Despite a 10.5 percent decrease in quantity, there was a significant 34.6 percent increase in export turnover, attributed to a 50.4 percent surge in export prices compared to the previous year.
In the same period, Vietnam exported 129,000 tons of pepper, marking a 10 percent decrease in quantity but a 27 percent increase in revenue, totaling $565.3 million.
Domestically, coffee prices rose by 320 percent by the end of the coffee crop season, while pepper prices doubled within three weeks.
Previously trading at VND80,000-82,000 per kilogram, pepper prices reached a peak of VND180,000 per kilogram on June 12, the highest since 2016, and currently are at VND152,000-155,000 per kilogram.
Export prices for pepper also surged, with Vietnam’s black pepper fetching $6,400-6,900 per ton (up 67.5 percent) and white pepper at $9,500 per ton (up 66.7 percent) since the beginning of the year.
Similarly, coffee prices increased from VND78,900 per kilogram in January to VND134,000 by April 29, currently standing at VND120,000 per kilogram.
Despite price fluctuations, coffee and pepper prices remain high, allowing farmers to earn significant profits, considering the low production costs of VND36,000 per kilogram for coffee and VND80,000 for pepper.
Vietnam’s total coffee-growing area for the 2023-2024 crop is 709,041 hectares, with output reduced by 20 percent due to drought and insects, hitting a 4-year low at 1.47 million tons.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts a decline in Robusta output for the 2024-2025 crop to 1.28-1.35 million tons, down 20 percent from the previous crop.
Pepper output is expected to decrease by 10 percent to 170,000 tons this year, a 5-year low, as other countries also anticipate reduced yields due to El Nino and shrinking cultivation areas.
Deputy chair of Chu Se Pepper Association, Hoang Phuoc Binh, anticipates a new cycle of pepper price increases that could extend for 10 years, with prices potentially reaching VND350,000-400,000 per kilogram.
Phan Minh Thong, chair of Phuc Sinh Group, predicts a continued escalation in coffee prices, driven by significant shifts in global farming practices, as many farmers worldwide are moving away from agriculture.
