Brian Jeffrey
A surprising development has made Vietnamese rice more affordable compared to Thai, Indian, and Pakistani varieties, something quite rare in the global rice market.
After the Lunar New Year, the prices for Vietnamese rice exports have steeply declined, now dipping below $400 per ton. This change has positioned Vietnam’s rice as the most affordable option in Asia—a notable event on the global stage.
Vietnam’s rice prices fall to lowest in Asia
After experiencing high prices in previous months, Vietnam’s rice export prices are currently undergoing a notable decrease. As reported by the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), the price for Vietnam’s 5% broken rice has dwindled to $399 per ton as of February 7.
This price point makes Vietnamese rice cheaper than its opponents:
$32 less than Thai rice of the same grade
$14 less than Indian rice
$5 less than Pakistani rice
This shift is quite unusual, as Vietnamese rice usually competes closely with Thai rice in quality and price while typically being more expensive than Indian or Pakistani varieties.
The current price of $399 per ton is significantly lower than the $533 per ton seen on July 19, 2023, before India’s export ban was enacted. When compared to the peak price of $663 per ton from late November 2023, the current price has decreased by $264, representing a drop of nearly 40%.
Vietnamese rice prices now lower than Thai 25% broken rice
This represents the lowest price level for Vietnamese rice since early 2023. Notably, 5% broken rice from Vietnam is now priced below Thailand’s 25% broken rice, which stands at $410 per ton.
Thailand: $410 per ton
India: $394 per ton
Pakistan: $377 per ton
Industry experts indicate that the main driver of the price decline is India’s recent decision to restart rice exports, alleviating some supply pressures. Consequently, global purchasers are not rushing to secure rice supplies as they did late last year and early this year.
Furthermore, major import markets for Vietnam have reduced their buying amounts this year, which has also contributed to the drop in prices.
Nevertheless, Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the VFA, suggests that this price decrease may be short-lived. He noted that buyers are waiting for even lower prices before committing to new purchases. Vietnamese rice boasts a robust reputation and occupies a distinct market niche, ensuring enduring demand.
Upcoming harvest season could influence prices
Vietnam is approaching the winter-spring harvest, which is the largest rice cropping season each year. Favorable weather in recent months indicates a potential for high yields, prompting importers to hold off on orders in hopes of better prices, Nam added.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reports that Vietnam exported 500,000 tons of rice in January 2025, generating $308 million in revenue. While this volume represents a 1% increase from January 2024, total revenue has dropped by 10.4% due to declining prices.
Despite strong global demand, the VFA predicts challenges for Vietnam’s rice exports in 2025, with total exports potentially falling to 7.5 million tons, down from the record 9 million tons shipped in 2024.
Tam An
