Frank Christian
The Champions League favorites, Manchester City, kick off their expanded tournament campaign with an exciting match against Inter Milan, the defending Serie A champions, at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.
This season brings a revamped format to the Champions League, eliminating the previous group stage for a new “league phase.” This change results in exciting matchups throughout the tournament, notably the rematch of the 2023 UCL final in which Man City secured their first European title with a narrow 1-0 win.
As they begin the season, City has shown promise domestically; however, they’ve displayed some vulnerabilities, particularly defensively, allowing goals in consecutive matches against Brentford, West Ham, and Ipswich Town.
Inter Milan has had a rocky start, drawing against both Bonza and Genoa, leaving them just two points behind the league leaders. So far, no Serie A team has maintained a perfect record after four matches this season.
Match Prediction and Odds for Man City vs. Inter Milan
- Moneyline Preference: Man City (-190)
- Predicted Score: Man City 2-1 Inter Milan
- Recommended Bet: Inter Milan +1 goal handicap (-105)
Considering Man City’s somewhat shaky start, this could be a chance for Inter to pull off an upset. However, Inter’s own inconsistencies have made them less reliable so far this season.
Interestingly, both teams have performed better against stronger opponents this season. Man City’s only clean sheet came against Chelsea in their league opener, while Inter decisively defeated Europa League champions Atalanta 4-0, with all goals scored before the hour mark.
Although we lack comprehensive insights on the current forms of these teams, it appears wise to support the favorites, albeit cautiously. The moneyline for Man City offers little value, while betting on Inter with the handicap provides a safety net for a narrow loss while also allowing for a potential upset.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Man City to Win | -190 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Inter to Win | +475 |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes: -145 No: +100 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Goals | Over: -175 Under: +120 |
| Man City -1.5 Goals | +130 |
| Inter +1.5 Goals | -190 |
Match Details: Man City vs. Inter Milan
- Date: Wednesday, September 18, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Venue: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Referee: Glenn Nyberg (SWE)
- Last Encounter: Man City 1-0 Inter (June 10, 2023 | Champions League Final)
Recommended Bet for Man City vs. Inter Milan
- Pick: Over 3.0 Total Goals
- Odds: +100 (DraftKings)
Despite their last competitive meeting ending 1-0, there are reasons to anticipate a higher-scoring game this time around.
Final matches typically display a more cautious style due to the high stakes, and the 2023 UCL final was no exception. However, that match saw both sides create 21 shots and 2.67 expected goals, with all significant chances missed, four of which were by Inter.
Throughout this season, Manchester City has allowed goals in three out of four matches, while Inter also conceded three times and allowed 4.04 expected goals in their league outings. Both teams possess explosive offensive talents, with Erling Haaland and Lautaro Martinez showcasing their prowess. Goals are expected in this match, and with even odds for over three total goals, the bet carries solid potential value.
Prop Bet for Man City vs. Inter Milan
- Pick: Inter 10+ Total Shots
- Odds: +115 (FanDuel)
Despite Inter’s emphasis on efficiency, they should have opportunities to accumulate a fair number of chances against Manchester City.
The Italian team has consistently achieved double-digit shots in each of their Serie A matches so far, though they faced weaker opponents. City, however, may not demonstrate the same level of dominance as in previous seasons under Pep Guardiola.
This season, City has allowed ten shots to both Chelsea and West Ham in varying matches. They possess 68% possession against West Ham yet gave up numerous counter-attacks, and although controlling 54% possession against a high-intensity Chelsea, they still allowed eight shots against a lower-ranked Brentford team in their recent home game.
Considering this, Inter has a strong chance of reaching that shot mark, which presents an attractive opportunity with favorable odds.
