Vietnam Faces Rapid Population Aging Challenge

The lifespan of Vietnamese citizens is increasing, yet the country is witnessing a swift rise in its aging population. In just a dozen years, it’s anticipated that one in five individuals will be a senior citizen, according to Deputy Minister of Health Tran Van Thuan.

During the announcement of the National Population Month on December 10, Professor Tran Van Thuan shed light on the critical demographic issues Vietnam is confronting. These challenges are already impacting social and economic progress and are expected to persist.

Deputy Minister Thuan pointed out that the country’s fertility rates are unstable. The average fertility rate for 2023 is estimated at 1.96 children per woman, marking a record low for the nation, with further decreases anticipated in the future.

Vietnam is moving away from its “golden population phase,” where two working-age individuals support each dependent, and is entering a period of rapid aging.

Matt Jackson, the UNFPA Representative in Vietnam, praised the rising life expectancy as a positive sign of development. As per Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the average lifespan in 2023 has reached 74.5 years, with women living an average of 77.2 years and men 72.1 years.

However, Mr. Jackson cautioned about the consequences of the country’s fast-paced aging process. Vietnam began its aging phase in 2011 and is projected to become an aging society by 2036 and a super-aged society by 2049.

An aging society is defined as having 20% of the population aged 60 or above (or 14% aged 65 or above), while a super-aged society has 25% of the population aged 60 or above (or 20% aged 65 or above).

“This shift from a youthful to an older society will have significant implications, and preparations need to start immediately,” stated Jackson. He recommended enhancing labor productivity, developing sustainable employment policies, boosting workforce involvement—especially among seniors—and investing in healthcare and education.

Despite attempts to address the sex ratio at birth, it remains skewed, with 112 boys born for every 100 girls in 2023. Mr. Jackson attributed this disparity primarily to gender-biased prenatal selection, which presents serious societal issues.

Deputy Minister Thuan and Mr. Jackson also flagged additional critical matters: Maternal mortality rates in remote ethnic minority regions are 3-4 times higher than the national average; 40% of unmarried youth face unmet contraceptive needs, significantly exceeding the rate for married couples; and nearly 63% of women experience some form of violence from their partners.

To tackle these demographic challenges, the Ministry of Health has proposed to the National Assembly a resolution for a comprehensive population policy framework. This plan includes strategies aimed at achieving replacement fertility rates across different regions and demographics. A draft Population Law is expected to be presented to the government in December.