Brian Jeffrey
Vietnam’s economic performance has exceeded its growth objectives for 2024, witnessing a notable rise in GDP and an increase in per capita income. Experts indicate that the nation is on the path to achieving upper-middle-income status and may surpass Singapore’s GDP earlier than expected.
The General Statistics Office (GSO) reports that Vietnam’s GDP rose by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing the National Assembly’s goal of 6-6.5%. This growth leads to a nominal GDP exceeding 11.5 quadrillion VND ($476.3 billion), outpacing the $450 billion forecast by the UK’s Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
The CEBR initially estimated Vietnam’s GDP would hit $450 billion in 2024, placing it 34th worldwide and projected it would exceed Singapore’s GDP by 2029. However, with actual figures surpassing projections by $26 billion and growth potentially reaching 8% or more in 2025, Vietnam could surpass Singapore much quicker.
The CEBR foresees an average GDP growth of 5.8% annually for Vietnam over the next five years, a lower estimate compared to the government’s forecasts. Officials from GSO note that the robust growth in 2024 sets a strong basis for even faster growth in 2025.
In 2024, Vietnam’s GDP per capita is projected to reach 114 million VND ($4,700), marking an increase of $377 from the previous year.
The World Bank classifies countries as upper-middle income if their Gross National Income (GNI) per capita falls between $4,516 and $14,005 for 2023-2024.
Vietnam’s GNI per capita for 2023 was recorded at $4,180, up from $4,020 in 2022 and $3,590 in 2021. Assuming a 7% growth in 2024, GNI per capita could increase by $292 to $4,472, which remains just below the upper-middle-income threshold.
Nonetheless, with ongoing economic growth, it is anticipated that Vietnam will achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.
In terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), Vietnam’s GDP per capita for 2024 is estimated to be $16,193, which classifies the country as lower-middle-income.
Within Southeast Asia, Vietnam ranks sixth in GDP per capita, behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, a position likely to hold steady in 2024.
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that by 2026, Vietnam will advance to fourth among the ASEAN-6 nations, with GDP per capita projected at $6,140, surpassing Indonesia ($6,125) and the Philippines ($4,801).
The economic dynamics of Vietnam are driven by a surge in investment, particularly in the technology sector, anticipated to contribute significantly to GDP growth and income increases in the upcoming years.
With continued attraction of foreign direct investment and infrastructure development, experts predict that Vietnam is on track to officially join the upper-middle-income countries, reinforcing its status as an emerging player in the global economy.
